Category Archive : 桑拿

[Can Toad Oil Treat Acne]_Toad Oil_Acne_Treatment

TOWER RECORDS Lei Qi Ji Jian mustard does not make Dingwolieshan TOWER Tuan Cheng Li Ya Yo firing OilPainting round bamboo basket Quarters Shuhuashanbo OilPainting meat Yunou Regulation Chen
It ‘s not easy to find out what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on, what ‘s going on?焼娌广€傝€佷竴杈堢殑鍙兘瀵硅洡锜嗘补娌℃湁閭d箞闄岀敓锛岀幇浠d汉鍒欏皢铔よ焼娌硅浣滀负涓€绉嶇豢鑹蹭繚鍋ュ搧椋熺敤銆傝洡锜嗘补纭疄鏈夐潪甯稿鐨勫姛鏁堬紝浣嗘槸涓嶅皯浜鸿涓哄悆铔よ焼娌瑰彲浠ユ不鐤楃棙鐥橈紝瀵逛簬杩欎竴鐐硅繕鏄湁寰呰€冭瘉鐨勩€?涓€銆佽洡锜嗘补鑳芥不鐤楃棙鐥樺悧 铔よ焼娌规槸娌℃湁绁涚棙鐨勫姛鏁堢殑銆備竴鑸劯涓婃湁鐥樼棙锛屼富瑕佹槸鐨偆鏄补鎬х毊鑲わ紝骞虫椂娌℃湁鍙婃椂娓呯悊鎵€鑷淬€備綘鍙互鍦ㄨ劯涓婃姽涓€浜涚鐥樿啅锛屽钩鏃惰淇濇寔鑷繁鐨勮劯閮ㄦ竻娲侊紝涓嶈涔辩敤鍖栧鍝佺瓑锛屾敞鎰忛ギ椋熻皟鑺傦紝涓嶈鍚冭緵杈g殑椋熺墿銆?浜屻€佽洡锜嗘补鐨勭蹇?濡傛灉鑴捐儍涓嶅ソ锛屾箍鐑緝閲嶇殑浜轰笉瀹滈鐢ㄨ洡锜嗘补锛屽惁鍒欎細鎹熶激鑴捐儍鍔熻兘锛岄€犳垚鑴捐儍铏氬急锛屾箍鐑洿鍔犱弗閲嶏紝杩欐牱涓嶄絾璧蜂笉鍒版粙琛ョ殑浣滅敤锛屽弽鑰屼細浣胯韩浣撴洿鍔犱簭铏氥€傚缓璁渶濂芥槸涓嶈澶氬悆銆傝洡锜嗘补閲岄潰闆屾縺绱犳按鍝佸惈閲忚繃楂橈紝闀挎湡棰戠箒鐨勬湇鐢ㄤ細瀵艰嚧闆屾縺绱犳按骞崇殑澧為珮锛屽姞閲嶅皬鍙跺鐢熴€?涓夈€佽洡锜嗘补鐨勪綔鐢?鎬у懗鐢樺捀寰俯銆傝兘琛ヨ偩鐩婄簿锛屽吇闃存鼎鑲恒€傜敤浜庤偩铏氱簿楂撲笉瓒筹紝鐪╂檿鑰抽福锛屽仴蹇?鐥呭悗鎴栦骇鍚庝綋铏氭皵寮憋紝澶氭睏;闃磋櫄鑲虹嚗锛屽挸鍡藉挴琛€銆傛湰鍝佸張鏄竴绉嶇編鍛抽鍝併€傚叾涓ぇ閮ㄥ垎涓鸿泲鐧借川锛屽苟鍚硸绫汇€佽剛鑲€佺7銆佺淮鐢熺礌A銆丅銆丆绛夋垚鍒嗐€傚彲钂搁銆佺厧姹ゆ垨浣滀父鏈嶃€傛瘡娆$敤10~12g銆傚洓銆佽洡锜嗘补鐨勯€傚簲浜虹兢 1.鍟嗗姟鏅哄+銆佹斂鐣岃鍛樸€佽繘鍙栧瀛愩€佸徃鏈恒€侀暱閫旀梾琛岃€呭強鐤插姵鑰?2.璐銆佸厛澶╀綋璐ㄨ櫄寮便€佸勾鑰佷綋璐ㄦ棭琛拌€?3.Sorry, you are in the middle of the village, and you have a lot of trouble with the village chain.4.鎬濊檻杩囧害銆佸績绁炲け鍏汇€佺儲韬併€佸鐫′笉浣筹紝澶辩湢澶氭ⅵ鑰?5,澶х梾鍚庛€佸ぇ鎵嬫湳鍚庛€佸姛鑳藉け璋冭€?6.鑲鸿櫄涔呭挸銆佹參鎬ф敮姘旂鐐庛€佽偤姘旇偪銆佽偤蹇冪棁绛夊紩璧风殑鍝枠鑰?7瀵归渶鏀剧枟銆佸寲鐤楃殑鑲跨槫鎮h€呭彲杩呴€熻ˉ鍏呴珮铔嬬櫧锛屽鍔犵櫧缁嗚優鎭㈠浣撳姏銆?

[Can you lose weight without eating at night]_ Not eating at night _ slimming _ effect

[Can you lose weight without eating at night]_ Not eating at night _ slimming _ effect

With the continuous improvement of the quality of life, more and more people want to lose weight.

Some people say that not eating at night can achieve the purpose of weight loss. Facts have proved that this method of weight loss is unscientific, but it is suitable for individual people. For most people, the disadvantages outweigh the benefits. Only a reasonable diet can reduce weight.

First, can I lose weight without eating at night?

The answer, skipping meals at night and losing weight may only target a very small number of people, but the harm is greater than the benefits. The three major nutrients that produce energy are protein, trace amounts, and content.

One gram can produce 9 kcal of energy, and one gram of protein and glucose can produce 4 kcal of energy.

Eating less can add fewer calories, which can reduce energy absorption, but eating less will absorb slightly more and generate more energy, which will not achieve the purpose of losing weight, but the absorbed nutrients will not be balanced, which is not good for your health.
Second, how to diet reasonably to achieve weight loss goal 1, control the thermal energy supplement According to the degree of excess, the daily transfer intake is reduced by 500-11,000 kcal than usual.

If you reduce the heat energy by 500 kcal per day, you can relieve the rest weight in 7 days.

5 kg (0.

5 kg of body fat contains about 3500 kcal of thermal energy), but adults must not be implanted less than 1200 kcal per day, otherwise the human body will not get enough nutrients.

2, to achieve nutritional balance within the range of limited thermal energy, reasonable arrangements for protein, trace and glucose feeds, to ensure adequate supply of inorganic salts and vitamins.

Protein: eat lean meat, fish, eggs and soy products.

Aunt: Do not eat fat, hard fruit, fat, and daily intake of snacks should be strictly controlled within 40 grams.

Glucose: Limits the intake of cereals and sugars.

Inorganic salts and vitamins: Gradually fresh vegetables and fruits, about 500 grams.

3. Develop good eating habits

Three meals.

The daily consumption of young men and women is roughly as follows: 500 grams of grain, one egg, 100 grams of lean meat, 150 grams of fish, 200 grams of beans, 500 grams of vegetables, 2oo grams of milk, and 25 grams of vegetable oil.


Chew slowly.

Some experts have conducted experiments. Obese men eat food in 8-10 minutes, and those who lose weight take 13-16 minutes to eat it. Obese women use 11-13 minutes to eat food, but thin women need 15-18Finished in minutes.

After 19 weeks of restricting the eating rate of fat people, men lost 4,000 grams and women lost 4,500 grams.


Eat more and move more.

Research data show that fat people and thin people do not differ much at night, and they consume about the same amount of heat energy.

The main point is that during the day, fat people have less activity and the internal activities of the body tend to be slow, so that the accumulation of heat energy is transformed into an aunt.


Eat less snacks, sweets and sweet drinks.

For example, per gram of peanuts, chocolate can generate at least 500 kcal of heat, which is equivalent to 150 grams of staple food.

In addition, in the process of “diet” to lose weight, you also need to increase exercise.

Because “dieting” is to reduce the intake of energy, so that excessive people lose too much “material basis”; and “exercise” is to more quickly and efficiently consume excess fat.

[Efficacy and role of eating gray lettuce-]

[Efficacy and role of eating gray lettuce?


Gray ash is everywhere in the countryside. The vitality of gray ash is very tenacious and it will grow everywhere. Whether it is in the field, on the roadside, or on the roof, everyone can see him. Although gray ash is everywhereIt can be seen, but the gray ash is a wild vegetable with high nutritional value. The gray ash can not only benefit the growth and development of children, but also have a health care effect on the elderly.

The nutritional value of gray gray ash is mixed with young seedlings or young stems and leaves of Chenopodium genus.

For annual herbs.

Gray ash is also called wild gray lettuce, gray steamed bun, gray stick vegetables and so on.

Born in the field, in the wasteland roadside and behind the house, it develops in most areas.

The Chinese people have a long history of eating gray ash.

There are two types of gray lettuce. The foliar surface and the back surface that can be eaten are reversed green, and there is white powder, and the back of the leaf is purple and inedible.

The practice of gray lettuce: Gray lettuce, a kind of food used by the poor, is now a fresh and environmentally friendly alternative to modern people.

The method of eating gray ash is also very simple. Put the young gray ash in boiling water and stir it (not too long), stir in the onions, ginger, garlic, salt, monosodium glutamate and sesame oil, if you add some pepper and vinegar, Tastes more delicious.

The nutritional value and effect of gray lettuce: gray lettuce is cool in nature, sweet and bitter.

With dehumidifying and detoxifying effects.

Can treat sore toes, swollen poison, mange, rheumatism.

Gray lettuce contains protein, trace amounts, impurities, crude fiber, carotene, vitamin B1, B2, vitamin C, and calcium, iron and other inorganic elements.

In addition, it also contains volatile oils and alkaloids.

Eating gray ash can prevent anemia, promote children’s growth and development, and has certain health functions for middle-aged and elderly people who lack calcium.

In addition, the whole grass also contains volatile oil, pterine and other unique substances, which can prevent digestive tract parasites and eliminate bad breath.

Therefore, as a kind of health food for all ages, gray ash is not only for ordinary people, but also boarded the hotel, restaurant tables. However, any kind of food will have two effects, gray ash is no exception.

Gray ash is a kind of photosensitising plant rich in purines. After eating it and adding continuous sunlight, it may cause acute phototoxic inflammation, and it will cause skin redness, swelling, tingling, and itching.

Therefore, repeated consumption should be avoided as much as possible after the consumption of gray vegetables. The effects of strong sunlight on gray vegetables and the drilling and tender stems and leaves of gray vegetables cause people to eat. They are healthy wild vegetables suitable for all ages and delicious.

Gray lettuce also contains very rich nutritional ingredients, and every 100 grams of gray lettuce young seedlings and young stems and leaves contain protein 3.

5 grams, aunt 0.

8 grams, 6 grams of cobalt, 1 coarse fiber.

2 grams, carotene 6.

35 mg, vitamin B1 is about 0.

13 mg, vitamin B2 is about 0.

29 mg, vitamin C69 mg.

There are also a variety of inorganic salts in gray ash, which has a calcium content of up to 209 mg and an iron content of about 0.

9 mg.
In addition to the filling surplus, the gray lettuce has a drug effect. It has a cool and bitter taste, and has antipyretic, dampening, antihypertensive, analgesic, insecticidal, dehumidifying, and detoxifying effects., Treatment of scabies or rubella.

The whole herb of gray ash is used as a medicine, and it has herbal effects to prevent diarrhea and itching, and has a good effect on diarrhea and diarrhea.

Wash the gray lettuce and wild chrysanthemum decoction outside to thoroughly treat the symptoms of wet skin and itching all over the body.

Gray ash is eaten as a healthy wild vegetable, it can also add calcium, prevent anemia and promote children’s growth and development.

The special substances such as volatile oils and veratine in the gray lettuce can also kill the digestive tract parasites and eliminate bad breath.

[Efficacy of naked oats]_Function_Efficacy

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[Can persimmon and white radish be eaten together?

】 _Same food_Same food

[Can persimmon and white radish be eaten together?
】 _Same food_Same food

Persimmon is a very delicious food. Many girls usually like to eat raw persimmon directly, sour and sweet is very delicious.

The nutrition in persimmon is very rich, especially for girls, eating persimmon is also very helpful for improving the skin quality.

In addition, radish is also a very healthy food, so from the perspective of a healthy diet, can persimmons and white radish be eaten together?

No, persimmons are cold substances. They are dry in winter and easy to catch fire. Eating persimmons is very good and can cause fires. Radishes are also cold substances. When eaten together, they can cause diarrhea.The principle of eating is that the same persimmon cannot be eaten with crabs.

Persimmon is rich in cellulose, calcium, vitamin C, carotene, sugar, protein and iron, iodine and other trace elements. It has the effects of clearing heat, moisturizing the intestines, stopping bleeding, and lowering blood pressure. It also has high blood pressure, constipation, and hemorrhoidsHas a good effect.

Many folks use persimmons to treat their illnesses.

Raw persimmons have the effects of nourishing the lungs and expectorants, strengthening the spleen, relieving cough, stopping bleeding, and detoxifying.

If a hypertensive patient is found to have a sign of a stroke, squeeze fresh juice, use half a cup of juice daily, and use rice soup to adjust the service.

Persimmon also has special effects for beauty and weight loss.

Eat fresh persimmon often, can beautify, treat melasma.

Use a green persimmon and 30 grams of mulberry fry with water, drink 1-2 times a day, it has the effect of weight loss.

After processing fresh persimmons into persimmon cakes, eating 3-5 per day will have the wonderful effect of beauty and spot removal.

Although persimmons are delicious, they also have taboos.

After eating persimmons, especially on a fasting diet, if more than three persimmons are immature and unpeeled at a time, they will easily form clumps in the stomach, which is not easy to digest and cannot be excreted from the stomach through the pylorus.The formation of gastric persimmon stones.

Qixin Group (002301) Company Commentary Report: Epidemic spawns outbreak of cloud video industry and grasps industry dividend period

Qixin Group (002301) Company Commentary Report: Epidemic spawns outbreak of cloud video industry and grasps industry dividend period
Incident: New type of pneumonia happened unexpectedly, causing social delay in the short run.In order to avoid face-to-face transmission, companies’ online work will lead to a surge in users and usage of cloud video.Recently, we invited the relevant leaders of Qixin Group to hold a conference call to conduct in-depth exchanges on the cloud video industry and the company’s “One Heart Good Vision” products. 1. The epidemic has spawned an outbreak 杭州桑拿网 of the cloud video industry, and users and traffic will surge in the near future. Goodwill is a set of cloud video services that is a set of hardware + software affiliated platforms and all terminals covered by Qixin Group.From 2016 to 2018, IDC (International Data Corporation), a global authoritative analysis organization, released a report, and the company has the largest market share in the domestic online conference market.Currently, Haoshitong has cloud video conferencing and vertical product lines, such as smart party building, smart healthcare, and smart education.During the epidemic, Qixin Group launched a free online cloud video conference system that supports 500 people. The market responded well. The number of new registered customers and usage has increased several times compared with the same period of last year. This emergency will help expand customers’ online presence.Meetings and office, it is expected that after the epidemic is over, some users are expected to turn into the company’s customer search. 2. Haoshitong’s first-mover advantage is obvious, customer resources are high, and its business model is ahead. Haoshitong has accumulated more than 10 years of video conferencing technology. It has leading large concurrency, stable QOS transmission, video gain, audio noise reduction, etc.Core technologies.The company continues to increase spending in the field of cloud video, and plans to spend more than $ 400 million in cloud video technology reserves (mainly the total investment amount of the two fixed increase plans).In terms of customers, the company has gradually served 6 trillion enterprises and government institutions. In 2019, the company was shortlisted by the State Affairs General Administration and other large customers. The company reached a strategic cooperation with Tencent Cloud to jointly explore and promote the Cosmoview video conferencing application and released the cloud conference.WeChat mini programs will further open up various application scenarios in the future. 3. Investment suggestion: Grasp the industry’s growth dividend, be optimistic about the company’s future development, and maintain the “strongly recommended-A” rating epidemic has spawned an outbreak of the cloud video industry, and users and traffic will surge in the short term.As the industry leader, the company lays out the trend of user office mobility, intelligence, platform, and socialization, and its long-term strategy is clear.In addition, the main business is full of orders in hand, and continues to build an enterprise-level integrated office service platform of “hardware + software + services”, with high certainty in the future.It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers will increase by 41%, 33%, and 35% respectively from 2019 to 2021. At present, the corresponding PE for 2020 is 26x, and the rating of “Highly Recommended-A” is maintained. Risk factors: Cloud video users realized more than expected, customers expanded more than expected, and competition in centralized procurement increased.

State Laojiao (000568): Seize the potential of the industry

State Laojiao (000568): Seize the potential of the industry

Matters: The company achieved 114 revenues in the first three quarters of 2019.

800 million, an annual increase of 23.

9%, net profit attributable to parent company.

0 million yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.

0%, of which Q3 achieved revenue of 34.

600 million, an annual increase of 21.

9%; net profit attributable to mother 10.

$ 5 million annual growth of 35.


In line with expected investment perspectives: Seizing the high-end potential, Guojiao ranked among the top 10 billion single products.

In 19 years, the state treasury closely followed the pace of price increase for competitive products. Wholesale increased from about 700 yuan at the beginning of the year to about 780 yuan at the beginning of the year.

Looking forward to 2020, in terms of price, multiple measures such as controlling fees and increasing the settlement price will be used to ensure that the price will increase and reflect the value of the brand. In terms of sales volume, new markets such as East China and South China have great potential. According to wine industry experts, the company plans to achieve sales in 2020.The caliber target is 13 billion, with a growth rate of 30% in ten years, continuing the trend of high growth.

  Waist products performed well, and Luzhou Laojiao accelerated its revival.

In the first three quarters, Special Songs has repeatedly raised prices and rationalized the price system. By increasing investment in brand promotion and consumer tasting, it has maintained a rapid growth. In the new year of stock ageing wine, more rationalization stages, Ming is expected to speed up.
  The third-quarter advance receipts performed well and the cash flow statement was beautiful.

At the end of the third quarter, advance receipts increased by 200 million from the previous month. Initially, the price increase was expected to be deep, and dealers were active in making payments.

Q3 returns 34.

600 million, an annual increase of 21.

8%, which is similar to the growth rate of income, and the net cash flow from operating activities is 16.

4 trillion, beautiful performance.

  During the period, the expense ratio was basically stable. The increase in gross profit margin and the decrease in the supplementary business tax rate promoted the increase in net profit margin.

Q3 gross profit margin was 84.

2%, an increase of 2 over the same period last year.

8pct, Guojiao, special song and other settlement 北京SPA会所 prices continue to rise and the structure of the focus of low-end wine brands is leading the improvement.

Q3 sales rate is 30.

8%, a decline of 0 per year.

6pct, related to the optimization of national cellar cost structure.

Q3 Management expense ratio (including R & D expenses) 6.

2%, a decrease of 0 from last year.

2 points, basically stable, business tax and surcharge ratio 9.

9%, a decrease of 2pct previously, a net margin increase significantly increased 2pct to 29.

9%, resulting in faster growth in performance than revenue.

  Investment suggestion: In 2019, the company will seize the high-end potential, make full use of the high and mid-range strengths, and have achieved good results.

Looking forward to 2020, the company will continue to return to the top three in the industry and realize the dual-brand revival efforts of Guojiao and Luzhou Laojiao.

It is expected that the company’s revenue will increase by 24% / 19% / 17% in 19-21 years; net profit will increase by 38% / 25% / 21%; the corresponding PE will be 26/21/17 times and maintain the “recommended” rating.

  Risk warning: Macro fluctuations exceed expectations, food safety issues

ZTE (000063): Join hands with private towers to create 5G glory

ZTE (000063): Join hands with private towers to create 5G glory

This report reads: Recently, ZTE Corporation and Guodong Group signed a 5G strategic cooperation agreement, which is the icing on the cake for 5G industry applications.

Event: Recently, ZTE and Guodong Group signed a 5G strategic cooperation agreement. The two parties will conduct market and technical cooperation on 5G smart towers and other fields, and jointly conduct 5G smart towers nationwide.Edge computing services and other 5G related application research, project pilots, technology verification and 佛山桑拿网 development.

Comment: Maintain “overweight” rating and target price unchanged.

Maintain ZTE’s net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 is 67.

6.2 billion, 81.

7.7 billion, 95.

41 trillion, EPS is 1.

61 yuan, 1.

95 yuan, 2.

28 yuan.

Maintain the company’s 25x PE in 2019 with a target price of 40.

25 yuan unchanged.

Strong and powerful help 5G shine.

Guodong Group is the leader of the domestic private information infrastructure integrated service industry, mainly engaged in the co-construction and sharing business of communication infrastructure such as railways.

The cooperation between ZTE and Guodong Group can further carry out cooperation based on 5G smart towers and 5G intelligent data centers across the country, adding icing on the cake for 5G IoT and edge computing applications.

The Sino-US trade war will only delay China’s 5杭州桑拿G-led progress, but will not change its upward trend.

China has a global leader in 5G end-to-end full industrial chain products. From the existing technical test indicators, domestic main equipment manufacturers are stronger than foreign countries.

In the 5G era, China will have more speaking power and pricing power, and will fully enjoy standard dividends and leading dividends. It is optimistic that major domestic equipment vendors are leading the development trend of the 5G industry. ZTE space is still difficult to overcome.

ZTE’s market share in the 5G era is expected to exceed expectations.

At present, the communication index has fallen back to the beginning of February 20th, which is quite high. After China Mobile announces the 5G trial commercialization and the theme fermentation of trial licenses, ZTE will be the first to benefit from the leading equipment industry chain.

At the same time, the Sino-U.S. Trade war will help ZTE ‘s domestic 5G market share exceed expectations. For ZTE, which is basically negative in foreign business net profit, its performance is also expected to exceed expectations.

risk warning.

Vicious competition leads to sluggish net profit growth, uncertainty exists in Sino-US trade war

Guodian NARI (600406) In-depth Report: Transformation of Power Grid Investment Structure

Guodian NARI (600406) In-depth Report: Transformation 深圳桑拿网 of Power Grid Investment Structure

Investment Highlights Signals for structural adjustment of power grid investment appear, and this year or beginning to repeat 2010.

The company is an autonomously controllable core asset of smart grid and grid information communication, which shows its ability to cross the industry cycle.

The scale of grid investment in 2010 decreased by 11 year-on-year.

55%, but the smart grid investment quota increased by 67%, and the structure has changed significantly. Guodian Nanrui’s order growth rate reached a historical high of 70%, and it also reached a historical high with PE; in the first half of each year, the scale of grid investment decreased by 19

25%, but Guodian NARI’s product orders increased by 14%, which is significantly higher than the industry. Signals on structural changes in grid investment have appeared. At the same time, State Grid Corporation of China proposed an ubiquitous electric power IoT construction based on the existing smart grid construction.It is expected that the road to increase the proportion of smart grid and ubiquitous electric power Internet of Things investment will start this year, and the scene may reappear in 2010.

  In response to the ubiquitous electric power Internet of Things cycle, the growth rate of Guodian NARI’s orders promotes rapid increase.

The company acquired ICT Corporation and Ruizhong Data in a major asset reorganization in 2017, and completed the overall layout of the power information industry chain. The power ICT business is an important direction for the current ubiquitous construction of the power IoT.The order of power Internet of things is 30-50 billion, and the company’s market share is about 40%. The order scale will increase during the current flood of power Internet of things cycle.

  Benefiting from structural changes in grid investment, the company’s grid automation business developed steadily.

With the transformation of grid investment to smart grid and ubiquitous electric power Internet of Things, the focus of grid investment will also shift from primary equipment to secondary equipment. It is expected that the company’s share of the industrial chain in grid investment will be 8% -10% before the transformation.Raising to the 15% -20% range, the company will focus on benefiting.

  Investment suggestion: Grid investment has driven the company’s growth from “requiring quantity” to “migrating both quality and quality.” We adjusted the company’s profit forecast and expect the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 to be 44.



94 ppm, with annual growth rates of 7 respectively.

1% / 23.

3% / 20.


EPS are 0.



43 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of PE on September 5, 2019 are 20.




  Risk Warning: The ubiquitous electric power Internet of Things investment is less than expected; the distribution network automation investment is less than expected; the risk of slowing macroeconomic growth.

Monarch’s solid income: Broad Credit has twists and turns. How far are we from the interest rate cut?

Monarch’s solid income: Broad Credit has twists and turns. How far are we from the interest rate cut?

Source: micro-channel public number “Tan talk about the bond market” Author: Tan Han / Wang Jiawen monarch solid income.
Report Guide: Resumption: Interest rate cuts are expected to rise, and the bond market is rising.

The core driving factor of last week ‘s soaring bond market lies in the gradual acquiescence of market interest rates to continue to break the policy interest rate floor, and the wider term spread provides a “safety pad”.

In the first half of last week, the debt performance was stronger than the current bonds, and the decline in long-term interest rates was limited.

Until Wednesday afternoon, the interest rate of interbank funds fell. Combined with the previous day ‘s mention by the Prime Minister of “reducing the actual interest rate level”, the market ‘s expectations for a reduction in interest rates rose and interest rates started.

With the increase in the stock market on Thursday and Friday, the bond market has become stronger.

  Thinking: The bull market is inevitable, and interest rates continue to hit a new low.

If you take into account the increased probability of interest rate cuts, then the strategy of buying until the ratio scores are in place seems to be a bit of a “knife for a sword”.

Stimulated by new incremental benefits, the imagination space for this round of downward interest rates can be greater.

With the acceleration of monetary policy easing, the long-term interest rate gradually broke through the previous low in this round of bull market.

The long-term interest rate forecast breaks through the previous low in this round of bull market, that is, the 10-year government bond is expected to fall below 3.

0% to 2.


9% first line.

Taking into account the regular bottoming of interest rates in the progress of the bull market and the level of term spreads, the highest point, 10Y China Development Bank designated a number of market space can see about 40bp.

  How far are we from cutting interest rates?
① Seeing the need for interest rate cuts from the leniency credit process: the growth rate of social financing has once again fallen, and the leniency credit process has had its turns.

The downward effect of the real interest rate level has begun to appear, but it is not enough.

To further reduce the real interest rate level, the RRR cut is a necessary and inadequate condition.

The CPI is temporarily unable to constrain monetary policy; ② Seeing the possibility of interest rate cuts from short-term overseas trends:杭州夜网 If the exchange rate still leads to a large degree of “internal and external equilibrium”, then the issue of “external” equilibrium has been small since 19 years.”Internal” contradictions have become the focus of policy attention.

The Federal Reserve ‘s probability of raising interest rates has been greatly reduced, increasing pressure on the euro area ‘s economic growth, and constant political turmoil, all of which have given time to achieve “internal” balance.

③ Judging the timing and method of the first interest rate drop landing.

The policy adjustment is still a “weak stimulus”. If the national economic indicators are still weak in March and the Fed has not raised interest rates, then interest rate cuts can now be seen in April.

The recurrence of the expression of “the total gate” means that it is unlikely that the policy will directly lower the benchmark interest rate. It is highly likely that the one-year MLF 南宁桑拿 interest rate will be reduced first.

Because MLF has been an important way to issue base currencies for a long time, the TMLF targeted interest rate reduction of 15bp also pave the way for lowering MLF interest rates. The one-year term is a key indicator for connecting the currency and credit markets on the interest rate curve.

  Text 1.

Resumption: The interest rate cut is expected to rise, the bond market is expected to rise and the interest rate rises, and the strength of stock bonds is switched.

Favored by the introduction of the science and technology board plan, the stock market broke through 3000 points last Monday after encountering a short tension of 3,000 points.

However, after experiencing a wave of rapid rise, the market diverged, and the index’s intra-day fluctuations intensified, reducing the degree of suppression of the bond market.

With the cross-months of funds becoming more accommodative, and the futures bonds deep in the water, there is room for the basis to be repaired. Treasury bond futures performed better than current bonds, and the rate of active bonds fell slightly.

On the whole, in the first half of last week, the performance of stocks and bonds doubled bulls.

  In the last two meetings on Tuesday, the Prime Minister mentioned increasing the targeted reduction of small and medium-sized banks and “deepening the reform of interest rate marketization and lowering the level of real interest rates.”

However, from Monday to Wednesday, the open market operation was gradually changed, and natural net withdrawals of 40 billion, 120 billion, and 60 billion were realized, and inter-bank funds were once tightened marginally.

Until the afternoon of last Wednesday, the inter-bank O / N, 7D interest rates prolonged, and the market’s expectations for a rate cut increased.

After three o’clock in the afternoon on the same day, the bond spot started to rise, and the 10-year CDB interest rate fell by about 5bp.

  The bond market ‘s long sentiment remained unchanged on Thursday. The loosening of funds helped boost market confidence. The early opening of high-yield bonds further boosted the enthusiasm of the current bond market.

Roughly, there are “sell” rating reports on the stock line, and the official media securities Times said that its rating research report should become normal. In February, foreign trade data exceeded expectations, stock market changes were adjusted, and the seesaw effect on the leverage of stock bonds appeared in the second half of the week.

The 10-year Treasury bond and CDB bond rates have fallen by 6bp and 7bp to 3 respectively.
14%, 3.

  Wide term spreads give long-term interest rates a “safe pad”.

In the bond bull market since 18 years, they have experienced two rounds of cross-grade bull market replacements. After the reduction in April 18 and the August to September of that year, the adjustments were not deep.

At least, the main economic indicators continue to break through the psychological lower limit, and the bull market is usually driven by a single factor that tightens the capital. As a result, the overall mid-term interest rate spread in this bull market is relatively wide, giving long-term interest rates a certain safety pad, instead of the usual situation.It’s sharply steep.

  Entering 2019, the 10Y-1Y Treasury Bonds and the China Carrier Spread have expanded by more than 30bp and 40bp, respectively, and the interest rate curve has steepened.

After a smooth month-over-month, even OMO operations can continue, but the somatosensory liquidity is too loose, and the inter-bank fund interest rate is again closely following the 7-day reverse repurchase policy interest rate operation.

Looking back three times in 18 years, the 7-day repo interest rate and the policy interest rate are inverted. What may appear later is the gradual abandonment of the 7D reverse repurchase rate as the lower limit of the hidden interest rate corridor, or the policy interest rate has been adjusted downward to adapt to the downward market interest rate.

From the performance of the bond market last week, the market seems to choose to believe in the latter.

Thinking: The bull market is inevitable and the interest rate keeps falling. Last week, the relationship between the strength of the stock bond and the bond has begun to show subtle changes. Since our weekly report from the previous week reminded that the interest rate trading window has been activated, the 10-year CDB bond rate has gradually fallen below 10bp in 5 trading days.

In fact, this round of market starts on the day when the stock market heavy volume rises, and the futures are ahead of the current bond response.

In general, after two months of shock adjustment, the debt market sentiment and transaction structure have been seriously repaired, and it is more sensitive to the easing of the fund and the positive impact of the stock market shock.

  According to the recent communication with investors, it is generally believed that the current long-term interest rate level is low, and the limited adjustment space in the past two months has led to insufficient follow-up long odds. Therefore, wait and see.

It is true that if the current state of the bond market is benchmarked with the end of the bull market and the adjustment rate last year, waiting for sufficient adjustment space before entering the market is a more appropriate choice.

However, this round of market enthusiasm is ignited, mainly because the market interest rate is frequently inverted with the policy interest rate. It seems to allow the price of funds to fall below the implicit floor of the corridor, coupled with the steepness of the curve.There will be funds to enter the race in advance.

In particular, with the acceleration of the long-term interest rate decline late last Wednesday, interest rate cuts are expected to start to rise. Combined with the reports of the Prime Ministers of the two sessions, it is expected that a scale of easing policy will be introduced in 19 years.

  The previous monetary easing cycle has not seen the fact that only the RRR cut and no interest rate cuts have been made. After 5 RRR cuts in 18 years, the price tools in monetary policy have not yet been used.

The next quarter may become an observation window for interest rate cuts. From the domestic environment, the downward pressure on the economy is still there, and “reducing real interest rates” and accelerating growth to the real economy are still policy priorities. From the perspective of overseas environments, the United States,Monetary policy in Japan and even emerging markets has been relaxed to varying degrees, and the European Union has gradually increased its stimulus, and the market expects that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in March.

In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi has also created conditions for achieving “internal balance”.

  If you take into account the increased probability of interest rate cuts, then the strategy of buying until the ratio scores are in place seems to be a bit of a “knife for a sword”.

Stimulated by new incremental benefits, the imagination space for this round of downward interest rates can be greater.
Of course, the interest rate cut itself may have a positive effect on the average value of the capital market, but since the current probability is that the one-year MLF interest rate will be reduced without directly using the benchmark interest rate tool, the benefits for stock bonds should be comparable.

However, the gradual easing of credit advancement and the expected stabilization of the economy in the second half of the year, and the subsequent release of further easing policies should further benefit the stock market, resulting in a more valuable 3-4 month interest rate trading window.

  The first choice to lower the MLF interest rate is mainly based on the following considerations: ① Excessive MLF stock balance is an important base currency composition; ② TMLF directional interest rate cuts ahead of time, and MLF-TMLF maintains a reasonable spread means that MLF interest rate reduction also provides space for subsequent TMLF;③ The two interest rates are merged into one track, which means that interest rate reduction is in the process of reform. The one-year MLF interest rate is a key indicator connecting the money market and the credit market; ④ The recurrence of the expression of the “gate” means that it is unlikely that the policy will directly lower the benchmark interest rate.In order to prevent the market from “flooding flood” expectations.

  In general, we believe that with the acceleration of monetary policy easing, long-term interest rates are expected to break through the previous low in this round of bull market, that is, the 10-year national debt caused it to fall below 3.

0% to 2.


9% first line.

Taking into account the regular bottoming of interest rates in the progress of the bull market and the level of term spreads, the highest point, 10Y China Development Bank designated a number of market space can see about 40bp.

  3.Broad Credit has twists and turns, how far are we from cutting interest rates?


Looking at the need for interest rate reduction from the perspective of the wide credit process, the growth rate of social financing in February fell again, and the wide credit process has had twists and turns.

The preliminary February financial data released on Sunday showed that RMB loans in the month were 885.8 billion yuan, followed by an expected 950 billion yuan; the social financing scale increased by 703 billion yuan, exceeding the expected 1.300 billion yuan; the social financing stock increased every secondSuper 10.

1%, down from last month.

3 averages.

February M2 from 8.

0%, expected 8.

4%, the previous value was 8.
4%; M1 up and down 2.

0%, expected 2.

0%, previous value is 0.

  From the structural point of view, the loan structure has deteriorated, and the average long-term loans of enterprises and residents have decreased and increased slightly; under the sharp rise of the stock market, the loans of non-bank financial institutions have increased month-on-month and relative averages.

In addition, off-balance-sheet financing in social finance continued to shrink, reducing 366.4 billion yuan over the year.

After the strengthening of supervision, the amount of unaccepted bills usually increased by 86 billion yuan. Although the on-balance sheet discounts are still increasing, they are significantly smaller than last month.

  Based on the size and structure data of the Social Finance in February, our repeated judgments on ultra-wide credit expectations have been confirmed.

Since the second half of 18 years, wide credit policy has come out frequently, but under the condition of insufficient effective credit demand, the progress of wide credit has been twists and turns.

We believe that it is necessary to give room for the scale of monetary policy to achieve a real reduction in social financing costs.

  The downward effect of the real interest rate level has begun to appear, but it is not enough.
The Prime Minister mentioned in the reports of the two sessions “deepening the reform of interest rate liberalization and reducing the level of real interest rates.”

According to the consolidated monetary policy implementation report, the actual interest rate level has begun to decline, but the magnitude is far from enough.

In the four quarters of the 2018 monetary policy implementation report, the expressions on the lending rates of financial institutions were “steady and slightly higher,” “basically stable,” “basically stable,” and “slightly lower.”For “basic stability”, “showing a downward trend” and “declining from the end of the previous year” (no relevant expression in Q1).

It can be seen that according to the established loan interest rate or the whole society’s financing costs including bonds, credit and off-balance sheet, the actual interest rate level has increased the need and space for decline.

  Lowering the real interest rate level and further reducing the quasi-necessary conditions are necessary and insufficient.

Since this round of easing, in order of time, the transition has carried out 1 inclusive financial cut, 2 targeted cuts, and 2 full cuts.

From the perspective of grades, net investment of 300 billion, 400 billion, 700 billion, 750 billion, and 800 billion has been realized, and the actual easing effect has been continuously enhanced.

Judging from the actual results, after the 5th RRR cut, the quantitative easing has led to the downward price and shift. The narrow narrow liquidity has led to the expansion of bond interest rates, which is favorable for the issuance of credit bonds; instead, the banks used the RRR cut funds to replace the relatively high costInterbank debt and structured deposits, under the cost of debt and fixed return on assets, loans reduce interest rates down (mainly bills).

  In the next stage, the standard-reduction operation will remain normal.

It is not only a continuation of the positive role of guiding the downside of indirect financing costs from two aspects, but also the consideration of promoting the implementation of wide credit in conjunction with special debt issuance.

Regarding the market’s view that in order to restrain the reorganization of bill arbitrage behaviors and make loose statements, a short-term extension may have this consideration, but from the perspective of the middle size, our view is exactly the opposite.

Reducing the bank’s reliance on high-capacity storage through structured deposits through lowering the RRR will actually help reduce the space for bill arbitrage.

  However, the easing effect achieved by the RRR cut and the “stagnant” inter-bank suspects have shown that the recovery rate of the bank’s excess reserve rate is much faster than the downward rate of loan interest rates.

In this sense, the role of quantitative instruments in guiding the downward movement of real interest rates depends to a large extent on the smooth flow of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.

That is to say, the “disguised interest rate reduction” effect achieved through the RRR cut is limited to the financial system, and the RRR cut itself is only a necessary and inadequate tool to guide the decline of social financing costs.

  PPI deflation + CPI inflation, monetary policy is expected to require a specific former.

Price data released on Saturday showed that the PPI grew at a rate of 0 every two years.

1%, slightly lower than expected, the CPI exceeded the growth rate of 1.

5%, basically in line with expectations.

  The downstream investment impulse has not resumed for the time being. The steel inventory accumulation rate is relatively fast after the Spring Festival.U-shaped; the futures price difference shows that the rb main contract is discounted to the spot, and the market is expected to be more pessimistic about market demand.

  With the current expectations regarding the early start of the pig cycle, related concept stocks have taken the lead.

Judging from the data, after the Spring Festival, the price of hogs is not off-season. In the CPI breakdown data, pork prices rose slightly from the previous month, and the leading indicators of hogs and sows continued to decline.

According to the monarch’s macroscopic calculations, it is assumed that pork prices will rise by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively.

It is estimated that the CPI hub in 2019 will reach 2% and 2 respectively.

3% and 2.

6%, overall mild and controllable.

  Under the combination of PPI deflation + CPI inflation, the former is a more reasonable monetary policy.

From a long-term logic point of view, the lack of effective demand in the real economy has led to the emergence of a gap between supply and demand. The CPI hub has a high probability of a downward trend, and short-term fluctuations are difficult to shake the monetary policy.

Even if the pig cycle is fulfilled and the CPI rebounds, the “stagnation” pattern caused by economic stability does not support the tightening of monetary policy.
At present, inflation risks are manageable, and there is not much restriction on more easing of monetary policy.


2.Looking at the short-term overseas trends, interest rate cuts may be on December 13, 2018. The gradual governor has commented that “The Fed is in the rate hike cycle, and China needs loose monetary policy to cope with the downward pressure on the current economy.When the equilibrium is inconsistent, the gradual monetary policy needs to find a balance point in it to achieve internal and external equilibrium. ”

On December 19, it announced in advance the creation of a medium-term lending facility (TMLF), and the operating interest rate was 15 basis points lower than the medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate, which was 3.

The president’s comments and subsequent tool innovations have the general background that the yuan began to appreciate against the US dollar in November, and went from close to 7 in December.

0 drops back to 6.

Around 9, the trend of the converted US dollar index turned volatile, and the unilateral impairment of the RMB was expected to break through.

  If it is said that the pressure of the budget exchange rate still leads to a great deviation in achieving the “internal and external equilibrium”, then the issue of “external” equilibrium has been small since 19 years, and the “internal” contradiction has become the focus of policy attention.

The Federal Reserve ‘s probability of raising interest rates has decreased significantly, the pressure on the euro area ‘s economic growth has increased, and political turmoil has continued, all of which have given time windows to achieve “internal” balance.

  US non-farm payrolls were lower than expected, paying attention to the Fed’s wording in March.

In Congress, the Federal Reserve in its statement in the January 19 meeting of interest rate meetings deleted the word for further increases in interest rates. The minutes showed that almost all officials hope to announce the cessation of the scale-down plan this year, further confirming that the Fed’s rate hike cycle is coming to an end.

The data released by the US Department of Labor last Friday showed that the number of non-agricultural employment increased by 20,000 in February, far exceeding expectations and previous values, and the lowest level in 17 months.

But salary growth was 3.


4%, the highest growth rate since April 2009, the number of unemployed3.

8% was below expectations and previous values.

After the data was released, the US dollar index, US stocks dived in the short term, and US bond interest rates did not fluctuate much. CME interest rate futures showed that the market ‘s expectations for interest rate cuts were almost unchanged.

Follow-up needs to pay attention to the wording of the Fed’s March interest rate meeting, and Powell mentioned that “more details about the contraction will be announced at a relatively fast time.”

  Economic indicators are lowered, and the European Central Bank will offer a looser alternative.

Last Thursday, the ECB lowered its economic growth forecast for 2019 to 1 due to “persistence of geopolitical factors and the protectionist threats and vulnerabilities of emerging markets appear to be affecting economic confidence.”

1%, a decrease of 0 from three months ago.

6 averages, expected from 1.


6% down to 1.


Regarding monetary policy, the existing ultra-low policy interest rate has been kept unchanged, the supplementary rate hike has been extended for at least half a year, and the third round of targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) has been announced.

  In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia signaled in February that it might cut interest rates and lowered its economic growth forecast.

In emerging markets, India unexpectedly cut interest rates on February 7th, cutting the overnight repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.

25%, officially ended the interest rate hike cycle since June 2018, while significantly lowering expectations.

Other EM countries also adjusted their monetary policy stances to some extent. In some areas, the Philippines and Indonesia, which are raising interest rates more aggressively in the Asia-Pacific region, are switching to the Fed and the internal economy, and inflationary pressures are rising. The former has lowered its expectations.The highest budget has stated that the benchmark interest rate is close to expectations.

  3.3.Judging the timing and method of the first interest rate cut, we believe that the probability of domestic interest rate cuts will increase in the next quarter. It is expected that the MLF interest rate will be reduced first. If the domestic economic indicators are still weak in March, the Fed did not raise interest rates and further released dovish signals.The rule of landing during the year in the cycle, when the end of April can see the continuous reduction of MLF interest rates.

  First, MLF has been an important way to invest in base currencies for a long time. The last round of interest rate hikes also started with raising MLF interest rates.

  Looking back at the 16-year rate hike cycle, starting with the resumption of 14D and 28D reverse repurchases in August of that year, along with the lengthening of open market operation conversions, inter-bank fund prices rebounded and liquidity tightened.

Then, before the Spring Festival in January of 2017, the price tools were used for the first time, and the one-year MLF interest rate was raised by 15bp to 3.

3%, once again signaled to the market the marginal tightening of monetary policy.

After the Spring Festival, the interest rate of the open market reverse repurchase operation was adjusted upwards, which improved the substitution effect of the interest rate curve.

  In hindsight, the core factor in raising the MLF interest rate has been that it has begun to consider using MLF to gradually replace the RRR cut for base currency issuance. This is also the “600 billion MLF meant to replace the RRR cut” that Yi Gang gradually said at the beginning of 2016.

In a round of easing that began in 18 years, the conversion and depreciation of the base currency have increased, and whether it is a gradual operation of the vertical or base currency, the reliance on the specific tool of MLF has been reduced.
But the current MLF balance is still as high as 4.

16 trillion, its importance is still high.

  Second, the TMLF stock is not enough to achieve “reducing the actual interest rate”. A targeted 15bp rate reduction should be understood as a stepping stone to lowering the MLF interest rate in advance.

  On January 23, 19, for the first time, a TMLF that met the relevant conditions and applied for a bank operation was initially applied. The amount was determined to be 257.5 billion according to the loan growth of small and micro enterprises and private enterprises in the fourth quarter of 2018 in conjunction with their needs. The operating period was1 + 1 + 1 year.

Compared to MLF, TMLF is also a “newborn”, and its role in supplementing the base currency is almost negligible.

  Considering the volume of TMLF, for the time being, only the beneficial effect of interest rate reduction on it is limited, but it leads to the foundation effect of interest rate reduction on MLF.
Considering the orientation of TMLF, in order to promote the use of this tool by banks, it is necessary to maintain a certain interest rate spread between TMLF and MLF. Then, in order to further reduce interest rates for small and medium-sized enterprises, it is also necessary to reduce the MLF interest rate.

  Third, the overnight and 7D fund interest rates are already very low, but Broad Credit is more dependent on improving the conversion mechanism of the interest rate curve. The one-year MLF interest rate is a key variable on the curve.

  Since this round of currency easing, a total of three inversions of the money market interest rate and the policy interest rate have occurred, but in the end they have returned to the “normalization” with the rise in market interest rates, and the first two times may have been gradually enlarged and actively initiated positive repurchase.operating.

In order to clear the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and avoid excessive leverage arbitrage among banks, it is unlikely that the short-term interest rate will be lowered.

From the perspective of the curve, open up the incremental coefficient, and the one-year period is the key moment.

  More importantly, the realization of the marketization of interest rates is inseparable from the “two-track and one-track”, which means that interest rate reduction will inevitably occur in the “reform”.

At the Boao Forum for Asia in April 18, Yi Gang proposed that China is continuing to advance interest rate liberalization reforms, gradually unifying the track of the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates and money market interest rates.

The benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans is a one-year interest rate. Among the money market interest rates, the critical values of reverse repurchase rates are 1D, 7D, and 14D.interest rate.
From the two dimensions of perfecting the curve coefficient and promoting the interconnection of the credit market and money market, it is also necessary to adjust the one-year MLF interest rate.

  Fourth, the recurrence of the expression of the “general gate” means that it is unlikely that the policy will directly lower the benchmark interest rate in order to prevent the market from expecting “flooding”.

  In the Politburo meetings in late 2018 and early 19, neither the Central Economic Work Conference nor the Long-term Work Conference mentioned the “Gate Gate”, while in the 18Q4 Monetary Policy Implementation Report, “the good gate” was expressed as a reproduction.

In addition, the Q4 cargo policy report and the Prime Minister’s report released after the two sessions were reset to “avoid flooding” to prevent the market from over-expected “water release.”

Combined with the 18-year RRR cut, the transition from the inclusive rate reduction to the targeted reduction, and finally to the overall reduction, monetary policy has its own rhythm.

Then the first step of interest rate reduction has been achieved, and the TMLF targeted interest rate reduction has been created, but it has not yet reached the stage of directly using the benchmark interest rate tool, and it will need to undergo a period of transition in the middle.

  In addition, the loan interest rate has started to fall. Although social financial data has been disturbed in the short term, the probability of wide credit will be effective.

There is almost no choice of direction for the water flow. The capital market and the real estate market have a relatively high “elevation”, which is where the water flow arrives first.

In order to avoid excessive speculation and even “bubbles” in these two tight markets, it is currently not convenient to directly lower the benchmark interest rate.

  Fifth, the policy is set to be a “weak stimulus”. The internal economic stability has not yet been seen. External external pressure has been released, which will translate into the operation of reducing the MLF rate at the end of April.

  Judging from the recent city investment policy, the CDB’s plan to disburse low-interest loans to Zhenjiang to resolve hidden debts has not been approved by the Ministry of Finance.

Judging from the urban investment platform we have recently researched, the resolution of hidden debts is still supported by land transfer fees, cash flow from operating business income, and general budget income, which are strictly controlled for supplementary debt.

In terms of the deficit rate, the special debt limit, and the Jianshui plan, the two associations did not exceed expectations.

In general, the current policy is still in the “weak stimulus” stage, and monetary policy will remain loose and difficult as a whole.

  Under the policy of “weak stimulus”, the economy is likely to maintain inertia downward in the first half of the year, while overseas pressure is re-released to give room for “internal balance”.

With reference to the pace and range of domestic interest rate hikes in 17-18 years, the Fed has gradually tilted.

Similarly, if this round enters the interest rate cut cycle, key points in time also need to pay attention to the operation and presentation of the Fed’s interest rate meeting, you may see the operation of reducing the MLF rate at the end of April.

  4.Macroeconomic and interest rate market review 4.

1.Macroeconomic fundamentals: all major economic indicators have weakened4.


1. Updates on important data include: a continuous decline in the past ten years, a continuous improvement from the previous month.

Data released by the Statistics Bureau last week showed that the CPI for February 2019 was half a year.

5%, former value is 1.

7%, 1% MoM, previous average 0.

5%; PPI 0 per year.

1%, previous value is 0.
1%, -0.

1%, previous value -0.


CPI is expected to stop falling and rebound next month.

  Foreign trade: both imports and exports fell.

Last week’s February foreign trade data released by the General Administration of Customs, denominated in RMB: China’s exports in February were six months to -16.
6%, previous value was 13.


Imports fell by half a year.

3%, previous value was 2.


Denominated in US dollars: Exports fall by 20 per year.

7%; imports fell by 5.

2%, the trade surplus is 41.

$ 200 million.

  Credit and social integration: The chain expanded significantly until it still increased.

Credit union finance data in February showed that China’s new RMB loans in February were 885.8 billion yuan, a previous value of 3.

23 trillion; China ‘s M2 money supply in February 8.

0%, previous value was 8.

4%; China ‘s increase in social financing in February was 70.3 million yuan, the previous value was 4.

64 trillion.


1.2. The growth rate of high-frequency data tracking coal consumption continued to pick up, and the maximum production capacity remained stable.

After the Spring Festival, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups continues to pick up every six months (monthly moving average), and it has also picked up several times a week, but the pick-up speed is beyond the vertical range.

In terms of capacity utilization, each industrial chain maximized the overall stability of last week and the blast furnace operating rate decreased.

  The growth rate of real estate sales picked up after the holiday.

Last week’s 30-city real estate sales area continued to pick up, returning to the positive growth range.

In terms of cities, sales growth in first-, second-, and third-tier cities rebounded simultaneously, with first-tier cities rebounding faster.

  The decline in food prices narrowed month-on-month, and the growth rate of prices of production materials increased.

According to the latest weekly data from the Ministry of Commerce, the week-on-week (February 18-24) food price growth rate narrowed, the price of vegetables increased, and the decline in meat prices expanded.

The price of production materials increased slightly from the previous quarter.


2.US debt yield tracking: short-term interest rates go up, narrowing the maturity spread The maturity of the US debt narrows compared with the previous period.

Last week, short-term interest rates in the United States rose from the previous period, with the Libor rate of 3M USD being 2.


Long-end 10Y government bond yields increased by 2.

64%, down 12bp from the previous period.

  Last week’s incremental economic fundamentals in the United States included: ① New home sales in the United States in December were 62.

10,000 households, higher than the previous value of 59.
90,000 households; ② The February ISM non-manufacturing index was 59.

7, higher than the previous value of 56.

7; ③ ADP employment change in the United States in February was 18.

30,000, lower than the previous value of 300,000; ④ the US trade account in December was -59.8 billion US dollars, lower than the previous value of -50.3 billion US dollars; ⑤ the United States in the week of March 1 EIA crude oil inventory changes to 706.

90,000 barrels, higher than the previous value of -864.

70,000 barrels; ⑥ The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of March 2 was 22.
30,000 people, lower than the previous value of 22.

60,000 people; ⑦ US unemployment benefits in February 3.

8%, lower than the previous value of 4%; ⑧ United States non-agricultural employment population in February was 20,000, lower than the previous value of 31.

10,000 people; ⑨ January US construction permit is 134.

50,000 households, 132 higher than the previous value.

60,000 households; ⑩ The number of new housing starts in the United States in January was 1.23 million, which was higher than the previous value of 103.

70,000 households.

  Information on the US policy budget last week includes: ① Fed Chairman Powell attends the US Financial Stability Oversight Committee (FSOC) meeting; ② Fed Chairman Powell speaks at the 2019 SIEPR Economic Summit Banquet; ④ Fed Chairman Powell participates in the US Financial Stability Oversight Committee (FSOC) meeting; ② Fed Chairman Powell attended the US Financial Stability Oversight Committee (FSOC) meeting.
Chairman Powell participated in the discussion of the normalization of monetary policy and its assessment.


3.Large-scale global assets: The US dollar index rose, and commodity prices fluctuated, and global stock markets fell sharply.

Last week, with the exception of Brazil, the Australian and Chinese indexes each increased by 0.

80%, 0.

18% and 3.

52%, the United States, Japan, South Korea, Germany, France, Hong Kong, Russia, the United Kingdom and Italy index fell 2 respectively.

16%, 2.

67%, 2.

64%, 1.

24%, 0.

65%, 2.

03%, 0.

65%, 0.

03% and 0.


  Global bond market yields fell across the board.

Last week, except for Japan’s 10-year government bond yields remained unchanged, the United States, China, Germany, France, Italy, Australia and the UK 10-year government bond yields fell by 12bp, 3bp, 6bp, 16bp, 25bp, 6bp and 11bp.

  The dollar index rose.

Last week, the US dollar index rose by 0.

94%, with the exception of the Swiss franc and the yuan, the appreciation of the dollar was 0.

89% and 0.

28%, the euro, yen, pound and Australian dollar each depreciated against the dollar by one.

16%, 0.

67%, 1.

44% and 0.

  Commodities were mixed.

Last week, iron ore, rebar, and thermal coal in the black series decreased by 2% and 1, respectively.

13% and 2.

68%; cloth oil rose 1.

25%, natural gas rose 0.

88%; non-ferrous gold rose 0.
32%, copper fell 0.

72%; rubber decreased by 5.

29%, soybeans fell 1.



4.Liquidity: RMB depreciation, offshore funds interest rates depreciate every year.

The US dollar-dollar spot exchange rate closed at 6.

At 7269, the offshore RMB spot exchange rate closed at 6.

At 7311, the RMB depreciated against the US dollar compared to previous periods, and the spread of onshore and offshore RMB spreads widened.

Night plate shocks increased significantly from last week.

As of March 1, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index was 95.

14. The RMB exchange rate has strengthened against “a basket of” currencies.

Last week, the spot inquiry volume was 318.

US $ 9.8 billion, an increase from the previous period.

  Offshore interest rates are mostly down.

Last week, most of the onshore market interest rates fell. Overnight and one-week interbank pledge rates fell by 11bp and 11bp respectively. In January, interbank pledge rates fell by 16bp.

CNHHIBOR went up by 18bp overnight, and CNHHIBOR went down by 19bp and 18bp in 1 week and January, respectively.

Last week’s budget reverse repurchase expired at $ 220 billion, MLF lowered its quota and replaced $ 1 billion, MLF withdrawn $ 105.5 billion, and net currency withdrawn $ 324.5 billion.


5.Interest rate debts and derivatives: The secondary market yields have fallen across the board. The primary market: the issuance of interest rate bonds has increased.

Last week, interest rate bonds were issued at 1,570.

400 million yuan, with an average daily circulation of 314.

08 billion yuan, an increase of 48 from the previous period.

600 million yuan.

Treasury bonds, CDB bonds, import and export bonds, and peasant development bonds issued 60 billion and 484 yuan, respectively.

500 million, 165.

9 trillion and 320 trillion; national bonds, import and export bonds and peasant development bonds matured 4,087, respectively.

1ppm, 150ppm and 855.

600 million yuan.
The winning interest rate of interest rate debt issued last week is generally higher than the yield rate of the secondary market on the previous day.

69) and 7Y (3.

1543), 14bp and 4bp lower than the previous day’s secondary market yields; China Development Bank won the bid interest rate of 1Y (2.

40), 3Y (3.
07), 5 years (3.

42), 7Y (3.

74) and 10Y (3.

66), the returns on the secondary market were 13bp, 13bp, 7bp, 9bp, and 4bp lower than the previous day;

42), 3Y (3.

14) and 5Y (3.

46), and the secondary market yields were 12bp, 5bp, and 7bp lower than the previous day; NDRC won the bid interest rate of 1Y (2.
25), 3Y (3.

12), 5Y (3.

47), 7Y (3.

84) and 10Y (3.

89), and the secondary market yields were 31bp, 4bp, 8bp, 3bp, and 2bp lower than the previous day.

  Secondary market: Yields have fallen across the board, the volume of government bonds has increased, and the volume of financial bonds has increased.

The volume of Treasury bonds last week was 4,530.

7 trillion, the financial debt trading volume was 19,869.

At 3.6 billion U.S. dollars, the transaction volume of government bonds increased compared with the previous period, and the transaction volume of financial bonds increased.

Last week, Treasury yields went up, 1Y, Treasury yields went up by 2bp, 5Y, 10Y, and 20Y Treasury yields went down by 4bp, 4bp, and 3bp, respectively; CDB yields fell by 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 20YDownlink is 2bp, 7bp, 11bp and 4bp.

  Treasury futures increased, and IRS interest rates fell.

Last week, Treasury futures increased, and the main contract for TF1906 Treasury futures closed at 99.

58, up 0.

58%, T1906 closed at 97.

76, up 1.


Last week FR007IRS closed at 2 in 1 year.

5963%, down 1bp from the previous period.